OPEC says it's lost control of oil prices
Cartel producers say they can't keep up with strong global demand
MSNBC
Updated: 4:51 p.m. ET March 15, 2005

With world oil prices north of $50 a barrel and rising, OPEC ministers meeting in Iran Wednesday will be grappling with a problem they haven’t confronted in the cartel’s 45-year history. In the past, OPEC tried to cool overheated prices by pumping more when supplies got too tight. But most OPEC producers say they’re already pumping as fast as they can. And despite the high cost of a barrel of crude, world demand shows no signs of slowing.

As a result, some OPEC ministers say, they’ve run out of options in trying to rein in the price of crude. Global oil demand has taken up most of the slack in extra OPEC capacity. Consumption is now believed by many analysts to be pressing up against the limits of what the world can produce. Saudi Arabia is the only country believed to have any surplus production left, and even then the Saudis are pumping close to 90 percent of capacity, according to the U.S. Department of Energy.

"There is not much we can do,” Algerian Oil Minister Chakib Khelil told reporters Tuesday in Isfahan, Iran, the site of Wednesday’s meeting.

"OPEC has done all it can do.” Qatar Oil Minister Abdullah al-Attiyah said. “This is out of the control of OPEC."

But that hasn’t eased political pressure on the cartel. On Tuesday, several oil ministers said they had received calls from U.S. Energy Secretary Sam Bodman. Sen. Ron Wyden (D Ore.) said Tuesday he’s not convinced that OPEC’s hands are tied by global demand reaching the limits of production capacity.

‘This is their claim. But the fact of the matter is that nobody knows what their capacity is.’


— Sen. Ron Wyden
Dem. - Oregon

“This is their claim,” said Wyden. “But the fact of the matter is that nobody knows what their capacity is.”

Though data on OPEC’s oil production capacity have always been hard to come by, there’s little disagreement on the rapid growth of global consumption -- especially in China and India. With worldwide demand this year rising by roughly 2 million barrels per day, whatever excess capacity is out there will be gone soon, according to Marshal Adkins, an oil industry analyst at Raymond James

“Maybe this year, but certainly in ‘06 there won’t be any excess capacity,” he said. “We haven’t been in that kind of market in our lifetime. You’ve always have more capacity than demand.”

That’s little solace to energy consumers, who are watching rising crude oil prices push pump prices to record levels. Though U.S. economy has yet to show signs of slowing and inflation remains low, a continued rise in oil prices will eventually slow growth, analysts say.

“We will find the price level that will slow demand,” said Adkins. “It may be $60; it may be $100. I think it’s fair to say its going to be in that price band.”

http://msnbc.msn.com/id/7190109/

Mark this day. It is an historic day: March, 15, 2005. The day that OPEC acknowledged that peak oil has arrived. They are signalling that they can't keep up with demand. Peak oil is here. Look for $100/barrel oil in the next few years.

 

BOHICA!

 

“We will find the price level that will slow demand,” said Adkins. “It may be $60; it may be $100. I think it’s fair to say its going to be in that price band.”

That last line says it all. I read in the paper this morning prices are expected to be $2.30 a gallon for regular unleaded gas by May. Paper didn't say anything about diesel fuel. With winter getting behind us, it could level off some...
I'm trying to think in terms of gallons per week rather than miles per gallon. I do a lot of unnecessary driving like most everyone else. I could cut out some of that and save a bundle. I don't look forward to a Honda Civic in my driveway.

 

Glad I kept my little Neon. At least it gets around 40 mpg or better if I tune it up. Maybe those pocket rockets aren't such a bad idea after all. You know, the ones dressed up like Harleys with the weed eater engines on them. May take a little longer ot get to work but hey, gotta save somewhere to support my other very expensive habit.

 

New one for me, had to look it up, certainly is very fitting.

BOHICA= Bend Over, Here It Comes Again.

 

BANANA -> Build Absolutely Nothing Anywhere Near Anyone

(Applies to refineries, LNG terminals, drilling rigs, etc.)

Rusty

 

My 99 Neon R/T has never ever gotten close to 40 mpg. Oh yeah the window sticker says 40, best ever 33 mpg, down hill, over a cliff, drifting. Averages about 31 - always run premium, which by the way is the same price as diesel. Go figure.

 

So then maybe the US should quit giving our worthless dollars away to every other country that needs help?

 

That goes with the NIMBYs
(Not In My Back Yard)

 

So lets see

Let suppose that im paying right now 2.09 a gallon for diesel, which is what im paying or paid for at my last fill up, and demand goes up to 100 dollars per gallon of oil, hmm we are at 50 dollars a drum? hmm then it is a proportional growth then that can be calculated by these numbers Hmm if it grows "proportionally" at this rate by the time that it reaches 100 dollars per gallon, i will be paying $4.18 cents per gallon of diesel THAT IS OUTRAGEOUS! dang.... 4.18 for 20 miles per gallon on a good day? thats almost 21 cents per mile... yikes...

Tx

Tx

 

Don't quite get your math, at $100 gallon a barrel of oil would go for $4200.
Long time before it gets that expensive I hope.
But you are right, if the price of crude doubles and diesel also doubles and goes over $4/ga @ 20mpgs = over 20¢ mile unless you drive a rig that gets 40mpg.
No doubt once smaller diesels start showing up in vehicles 40 mpgs will be easy.
I read of a Honda Accord diesel that is getting 90 mpgs.

 

Basically it was proportional,

Perhaps im incorrect myself here.. This is the way i saw it, if a barrel i mean of oil is 50 dollars now, and im paying 2.09 per gallon of diesel, then when it doubles, a barrel of oil would be 100 dollars, then i would be payin 4.18 a gallon for diesel... it is a proportional growth, kinda like any multiplication table.... either ways its too much money.. and all of a sudden a tacoma aint lookin so bad now... stuff a jetta diesel under it and im set to go!

Tx

 

If the dye can be put into the diesel fuel to make it red, Just how fine of a filter or what color dye could be used to remove the color. Seems like that would be doable although not practical or legal But, I would like to try it to see if it can be done.

I have done searches into Bioiesel for some time now and I will probably go this route eventually. I have made some to see how easy it is, but I will want a closed system so I will not expose myself the the methanol or lye vapors. Even if you had to pay $3,000.00 for a turnkey system the payback would not take long at these prices.
I have at least 2 places I can get the WVO for free but I wonder just how long before the GOVERNMENT starts tracking the waste oil like enviornmental waste giving some lame excuse so they can find who is taking it. The government hates it when you steal from them.
Now where most of where you live there should be no problems with your neighbors probably being so far away you can't even see them and that is great but here in California I would set up a system in the garage or back yard where nobody knows about it. Here in the land of the paranoid, your neighbor might snitch you out once they find out how little your fuel cost, or they will say "I saw some chemicals in some bottles" and someone will raid your house looking for a LAB.

Here are some links to some turnkey systems.
http://www.azurebiodiesel.com/products.shtml
http://mysite.verizon.net/res21b05/biodiesel/id13.html
http://www.dangerouslaboratories.org/biodiesel.html

I don't know how much fuel you all are using but I put in $40.00 - $50.00 every 3 to 5 days average now. I need to figure out how much I could save.

Do you think in a few years we will have to hide stills in the back room of our garages and keep a lookout for the revenuers on our property like the years gone by?
Jim.

 

The dye is just the visual clue.
The clincher is the chemical tracer included with the dye.

You could filter out the dye, or add something to change the color, but the chemical will always be there.


phox

 

What is already happening and will continue to grow is WVO collection is becoming commercialized with it contracted out. The WVO is then sold to biodiesel refineries. Won't be long and it will be harder to come by or you'll have to pay to haul it away and guarantee you take it all. Nothing comes free for long till someone carves out a money making niche for themselves.

You have the largest WVO to bio conversion plant in the world in So Calif at Port Hueneme, it does one million gallons annually.